RBI Policy : FY26’s first RBI policy has arrived. Giving more details on this, the RBI has said that trade concerns have emerged from global uncertainty. FY26 has started with challenges. Crude prices have declined. Growth in the Indian economy continues. Global uncertainty remains to be seen. RBI has cut interest rates by 0.25%. RBI has reduced the repo rate by 0.25% to 6%. At the same time, the MSF rate has been reduced from 6.50% to 6.25%.
The RBI governor said that the 4% inflation target is confident of being achieved. The focus will remain on promoting growth. The MPC has changed the policy stance. The stance on the policy has been ACCOMMODATIVE from NEUTRAL.
Retail inflation forecast for FY26 lowered from 4.2 per cent to 4 per cent
The RBI governor said the retail inflation estimate for FY26 has been reduced from 4.2 per cent to 4 per cent. Retail inflation estimates for the first quarter of FY 2026 have been reduced from 4.5 per cent to 3.6 per cent Similarly, the retail inflation estimate for the second quarter of FY 2026 has been reduced from 4 per cent to 3.9 per cent Retail inflation for the third quarter of FY 2026 has been maintained at 3.8 per cent The inflation estimate for the fourth quarter of FY 2026 has been lowered from 4.5 per cent to 4.4 per cent
RBI Policy Stance not Related to liquidity Position
The RBI Governor further said that the policy stance is not related to the liquidity situation. More tariffs will have an impact on exports. The impact on the currency is possible due to US tariffs. Global uncertainty makes currency volatility possible. Sluggish global growth will affect oil and commodities. There is no concern about inflation from US tariffs. The focus remains on increasing growth with controlled inflation.
FDI investment remained strong from April 2024 to January 2025
FDI investment has been strong from April 2024 to January 2025. Foreign exchange reserves have risen to $ 67,630 crore. It is proposed to implement securitization for NPAs. The financial position of banks remains strong. Further, comprehensive guidelines will be issued on gold loans. A permit will be granted to NPCI on UPI transaction limit. The scope of the rule involving co-lending has been extended. Co-lending guidelines are applicable on all types of loans.
GDP Growth Forecast
The RBI governor also pointed out that the FY26 real GDP growth estimate has been reduced by 0.20 per cent. The FY26 real GDP growth estimate has been reduced from 6.7 per cent to 6.5 per cent. The Q1 FY26 real GDP estimate has been reduced from 6.7 per cent to 6.5 per cent. The Q2 FY26 real GDP estimate has been reduced from 7 per cent to 6.7 per cent. Q3 FY26 real GDP growth has been increased from 6.50 per cent to 6.60 per cent. The Q4 FY26 GDP growth estimate has been reduced from 6.50 per cent to 6.30 per cent.
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