Stock Market Outlook : The Indian stock markets have been choppy over the past few weeks. This is the second increase in the last 2 weeks. The fall in the markets was attributed to global trade tensions due to tariff hikes by US President Donald Trump, which unnerved investors domestically and internationally. As a result, the trading week has recorded a huge correction. Whether this trend continues or not will largely depend on the triggers of the coming week.
Strong Selling in Domestic Market
Domestic equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty50 were mainly hit by weak global cues and fresh trade war concerns. The Nifty50 ended the week at 22, 904.40, while the Sensex closed near its weekly low of 75, 364.69. During the week, the BSE Sensex declined by 2, 050.23 points or 2.64%, and the NSE Nifty declined by 614.8 points or 2.61%.
Impact of Global Trade Tension
The sell-off was triggered by US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose heavy reciprocal tariffs on its major trade partners, including a 27% tariff on select Indian goods. According to market analysts, the high volatility level was seen in the form of growth in the India VIX Index. This heightened caution comes ahead of quarterly earnings and ongoing election-related developments. The new financial year started with a slowdown due to higher-than-expected US tariffs.
Important Triggers for the Market
The week will be crucial from both domestic and technical perspectives as investors will be tracking broader economic data and corporate earnings. The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to begin deliberations for its first policy decision for FY26, with a decision on the interest rate expected on April 9.
Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) will release its results on Thursday, April 10, 2025, marking the beginning of the Q4 earnings season. Vinod Nair of Geojit Investments Ltd said market focus is gradually shifting towards the upcoming corporate earnings season.
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation data for March 2025 will be released on Friday, April 11. However, due to the Ambedkar Jayanti holiday on April 14, the retail inflation data may be released later.
FIIs Selling Returns
In early April, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold aggressively and pulled out about Rs 13,730 crore from the cash segment. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) provided some support with net investments of around Rs 5,632 crore.
Eyes on the Global Market
The week ahead is very special as investors around the world are closely tracking key global triggers such as US inflation data and FOMC minutes. Dr. V. K. Vijayakumar of Geojit Investments Ltd. said that a full-blown trade war will impact global trade and economic growth. There is a need to adopt a wait and watch strategy before FPIs become buyers again, he said.
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